Why will it take at least ten years for North Korea to denuclearize?

Siegfried Heck. Picture/Stanford

American nuclear physicist Siegfried Heck looks forward to the second Trump-Kim meeting

Consensus should be reached on specific steps for denuclearization and normalization of relations

Staff reporter/Li Jing

This article first appeared in the 881st issue of "China News Weekly"

After Pompeo and Kim Yong Chol postponed the high-level meeting between North Korea and the United States originally scheduled to be held in New York on November 8, the prospects for the talks between North Korea and the United States, which were originally clouded, once again turned around.

Recently, U.S. President Trump, who returned from the Group of Twenty (G20) summit, told the media on the "Air Force One" special plane that he would hold talks with Kim Jong-un in January and February next year. "We get along very well and have a very good relationship." Trump said he would also invite Kim Jong-un to visit the United States "at some point." According to Bloomberg, the meeting location for the second Trump-Kim meeting has not yet been determined, and three possible locations are under consideration.

In the context of the continuous new changes in the North Korean nuclear issue, Sigfri Heck, a professor and nuclear physicist at Stanford University in the United States who has visited North Korea seven times and visited its nuclear equipment four times, said in an exclusive interview with China News Weekly that the North Korean nuclear issue faced a very dangerous situation in 2017. However, many positive things happened in 2018, which were "somewhat unexpected."

The idea of ​​"action for action" is necessary

China News Weekly: Since the beginning of this year, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has improved rapidly. Are you surprised that the situation has improved?

Siegfried Heck: 2017 was a very dangerous year because North Korea’s nuclear program had made technological progress and it conducted a large-scale nuclear test and ballistic missile test launch in September. Furthermore, rhetoric in politics is extremely dangerous. However, many positive things happened in 2018, the most important of which is that politically we are far away from the precipice of war, which is good news and somewhat unexpected.

China News Weekly: According to reports, the leaders of North Korea and the United States may hold a second meeting within the next month or two. What do you think the second Trump-Kim summit can achieve?

Siegfried Heck: The Singapore meeting opened the door to resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis and realizing the denuclearization of the peninsula. The U.S.-North Korea summit became possible thanks to the important reconciliation measures taken by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The Singapore declaration of the U.S.-North Korea leaders’ meeting focused on the overall goals of normalizing relations and denuclearization between the two countries. It was very basic and therefore left all difficult problems to the future. The second U.S.-North Korea leaders’ meeting should reach consensus on specific steps for denuclearization and normalization of relations.

China News Weekly: The United States insists that North Korea first completely denuclearizes and then talk about lifting sanctions. However, North Korea seems to want to respond to actions with actions, and the positions of the two sides are far apart. Do you think the two sides can find room for compromise to continue the denuclearization of the peninsula?

Siegfried Heck: I think the "action-for-action" approach is necessary, but North Korea must effectively reduce the dangers caused by its nuclear program, and the United States must make real progress in normalizing relations between the United States and North Korea. These measures taken by both sides should be included in the agenda of the second US-DPRK leaders’ meeting.

"North Korea is already a de facto nuclear-armed state"

China News Weekly: You have visited North Korea's nuclear facilities many times. According to your assessment, has North Korea become a de facto nuclear-armed state?

Siegfried Heck: There are still many aspects of North Korea’s nuclear power that are uncertain, but based on my understanding of North Korea’s nuclear facilities and six nuclear tests, North Korea may already have enough nuclear materials. Its stored plutonium and highly enriched uranium can produce 20 to 60 nuclear weapons, most likely 30.

North Korea has many types of missiles. It is likely that it has been able to miniaturize its nuclear warhead and can be mounted on short-range Scud missiles and medium-range Nodong missiles, thus being able to strike the entire territory of South Korea and most areas of Japan. North Korea has also demonstrated the ability to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles, but has only conducted high-ballistic test launches and has not conducted low-ballistic test launches, which means that more missile test launches are needed to obtain reliable intercontinental ballistic missile technology. North Korea has yet to demonstrate the ability to build a small, flexible and lightweight nuclear warhead that can be carried by an intercontinental ballistic missile.

I don’t want to say that North Korea is a nuclear-armed state, but possessing some nuclear weapons makes it a de facto nuclear-armed state.

China News Weekly: You once predicted in a report that it would take at least 15 years for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. What are the main obstacles for North Korea to complete its denuclearization?

Siegfried Heck: My colleagues at Stanford University, Robert Carlin and Elliot Serbin, and I have compiled and published a complete history of North Korea's nuclear program. On this basis, we formulated a 10-year road map for North Korea's denuclearization, not the 15-year period widely reported by the media. In fact, it may be more appropriate to call it a 10-year "framework" because the real road map is determined through negotiations and consultations between all parties.

Our roadmap proposes three phases for denuclearization. The first stage is "braking", which means not making the situation worse. The second stage is to take specific measures to "retreat", that is, to reduce the threat and no longer conduct nuclear tests, test launches of missiles, or produce plutonium. Uranium enrichment facilities also need to be processed, but this will take longer because currently only the centrifuge equipment at the Yongbyon nuclear facility is known, and North Korea has other centrifuge equipment that will eventually need to be processed. The third phase is to "clear out" all weapons and facilities supporting the nuclear weapons program. Facilities supporting the civilian nuclear program also need to be discussed in the negotiations. Our framework shows that the first phase will take 1 year, the second phase may last 4 years, and the third phase will be completed in the 10th year.

If sufficient mutual trust is cultivated between North Korea and the United States, this process can be accelerated. One way to enhance mutual trust and accelerate the process is for the United States and South Korea to express their willingness to Chairman Kim Jong Un to help North Korea transform its military nuclear and missile program into a civilian nuclear and aerospace program. Allowing technical experts from the United States and South Korea to work side by side with North Korean experts at North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities will be the best way to verify nuclear abandonment.

I should also add that both China and Russia have a role to play in this regard. China can help North Korea build nuclear reactors to generate electricity, and Russia can provide North Korea with satellite launch services.

China News Weekly: Based on the current progress of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament and the possible outcomes of the second “Kim-Trump” meeting, do you think that the current process of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament is consistent with the three-stage framework you proposed? Among the three stages, which stage is the most important? Which stage is the most difficult to implement?

Siegfried Heck: North Korea has now started the first phase of the ten-year roadmap we proposed, which is to put the brakes on nuclear research and development. Pyongyang has stopped nuclear tests and long-range missile tests, and has promised to abandon the Dongchang-ri missile launch base. The next important step is to shut down the reactor and stop producing plutonium.

The Trump administration is pressuring North Korea to declare its nuclear inventory as the next step. Although North Korea's declaration at some point in time is in line with the three-stage framework, its current significance is not as significant as stopping the operation of the Yongbyon nuclear facility, and it may also be counterproductive. I hope that the next meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea will start the second phase, which is to seriously implement the "step back" on the nuclear and missile programs. The most difficult step is the final step, which is to eliminate all military nuclear and missile programs. This requires the United States and North Korea to cultivate mutual trust, as well as the help of South Korea, China, Russia and other parties.

Leaving the brink of war

China News Weekly: How can the international community effectively supervise North Korea's measures to abandon its nuclear weapons, such as suspending nuclear and missile tests and suspending uranium enrichment activities? Are these moves reversible, and if they are restarted, will it take long for the outside world to find out?

Siegfried Heck: When North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with US Secretary of State Pompeo on October 7, he clearly agreed to allow international inspectors to enter the Punggye-ri test site. This is a very important step in building mutual trust between the two sides and proves that North Korea is taking serious actions to stop its nuclear program. Inspectors should be able to assess the extent to which the test site's tunnels have been destroyed and what work will be needed to re-open them. Giving up nuclear testing is one of the most important measures for North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons.

Ceasing nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile test launches are important positive measures, and closing the tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is also an important step. A cessation of nuclear testing and long-range missile launches would be easy to monitor and would provide confidence. The operation of plutonium-producing reactors can also be monitored very effectively using commercial satellite imaging. But without North Korea's cooperation, there is no way to monitor the operation of uranium enrichment facilities.

It is true that these measures are reversible, and the operation of many nuclear facilities is reversible, but restarting nuclear tests takes a lot of time and is easily discovered. At the same time, if the test tunnel has been effectively destroyed, it will be difficult to restart nuclear testing. For plutonium production to become irreversible, the reactor must be decommissioned (poisoned or destroyed). There is not much that can be done to confirm that uranium enrichment has been suspended or to prevent its resumption because no one outside North Korea knows where all the uranium enrichment facilities are located.

China News Weekly: If North Korea truly gives up its nuclear weapons, how should the United States repay it? What kind of incentives can the international community give North Korea to create a more favorable environment for denuclearization?

Siegfried Heck: I don't see this as reciprocation. We should not be seen as bribing North Korea to give up its nuclear program. In addition, I think what North Korea needs most is security guarantees. In this regard, one should ask what North Korea needs. Considering that Chairman Kim Jong Un appears to be serious about improving North Korea's economy, I think he will ask for sanctions to be lifted to develop North Korea's economy. The United States should be prepared to match the political normalization of relations with the economic lifting of sanctions.

China News Weekly: Judging from the interactions between all parties this year, especially the interactions between the United States and North Korea, how likely do you think North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is to commit to complete denuclearization? Compared with his father, Kim Jong Il, is he more confident and determined in shifting the focus of his work to economic construction?

Siegfried Heck: The history of negotiations is long and complex. No one outside North Korea really knows what Kim Jong Un plans to do. However, he has taken important and encouraging steps towards denuclearization and expressed his firm determination to promote economic development. Kim Jong Un has taken steps that, in 2018, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Trump have helped bring us back from the brink of war. I think now is the time to see how far Kim Jong Un is willing to go toward denuclearization and normalization of relations. Time will tell.